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Prediction for CME (2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-18T18:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18877/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is associated with an M1.5 flare from AR 12929 (N07W53) and brightening/EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 starting aorund 2022-01-18T17:20Z. The source signature is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 toward the NW limb around the same time. The CME arrival includes weak magnetic shock and jumps in solar wind density/speed/temp, preceded by a weak pileup.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-21T12:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-22T01:00Z (-6.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 65.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -25
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Estimate produced using LASCO and STEREO A coronagraph images. The Enlil run appears to show the main body of the CME heading perhaps more towards STEREO B location, so estimating the Kp is difficult.

Lead Time: 58.12 hour(s)
Difference: -12.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-01-19T02:48Z

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